中山大学土木工程学院,广东 珠海 519082
覃佳盛(2001年生),男;研究方向:骤旱特征机理;E-mail:qinjsh@mail2.sysu.edu.cn
吕洋(1989年生),男;研究方向:水资源遥感、数据同化;E-mail:lyang6@mail.sysu.edu.cn
纸质出版日期:2024-09-25,
网络出版日期:2024-07-03,
收稿日期:2024-03-02,
录用日期:2024-05-08
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覃佳盛,杨婷,吕洋.1980—2022年我国骤旱特征及趋势分析[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版)(中英文),2024,63(05):48-62.
QIN Jiasheng,YANG Ting,LÜ Yang.Flash drought pattern and trend in China during 1980-2022[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2024,63(05):48-62.
覃佳盛,杨婷,吕洋.1980—2022年我国骤旱特征及趋势分析[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版)(中英文),2024,63(05):48-62. DOI: 10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.ZR20240062.
QIN Jiasheng,YANG Ting,LÜ Yang.Flash drought pattern and trend in China during 1980-2022[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2024,63(05):48-62. DOI: 10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.ZR20240062.
在气候变化背景下,骤旱事件频发,可在短期内对农业生产和生态系统功能造成巨大影响。因此全面准确掌握我国骤旱特征和变化趋势,对我国干旱风险评估和精准化农业减灾等具有重要意义。本文利用长时间序列陆面模型数据与再分析数据集,分别采用基于蒸发胁迫比和土壤水分的判别方法,对1980—2022年我国骤旱的发生频次、骤旱烈度、持续时间和时空分布等特征进行综合量化分析,并采用趋势分析方法评估不同区域的发展趋势,以全面准确分析我国骤旱特征与发展趋势。结果表明:(1)两种方法均表明我国夏季骤旱频次最高,冬季最低;(2)两种方法识别出的骤旱范围在东南地区较为一致,而在西北地区存在较大差异;(3)基于蒸散发的方法识别出的场次最高的地区为青藏高原地区,基于土壤水分的方法为四川中部地区;(4)骤旱平均持续时间多为6~10候,基于蒸散发的方法识别出西北地区较高,基于土壤水分方法识别出西北部和中部部分地区较高;(5)基于蒸散发的方法显示骤旱烈度较高的地区为东北地区、西北地区、西藏自治区和台湾;基于土壤水分方法显示南方地区骤旱烈度较高。两种方法结果存在明显差异,其阈值选取及区域适用性仍有待深入研究。
In the context of global climate change, flash droughts occur frequently and can have a huge impact on agricultural production and ecosystem functions in the short term. Therefore, it is of great significance to comprehensively and accurately describe the characteristics and trends of drought for drought risk assessment and agricultural disaster reduction in China. This study used long-term land surface model data and reanalysis datasets to analyze the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatiotemporal distribution of flash drought events in China from 1980 to 2022. Two flash drought detection methods, based on evapotranspiration stress ratio and soil moisture were adopted, respectively, and the Mann-Kendall trend analysis method was used to evaluate the development trend of flash drought characteristics in different regions. The results show that:(1) The identified flash drought ranges using the two methods are more consistent in southeast China, yet great differences exist in northwest China. (2) The area with the highest occurrence of flash droughts identified by the evapotranspiration-based method is the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, while that from the soil moisture-based method is the central region of Sichuan Province. (3) Flash drought occurrences distribute unevenly among seasons, which is the highest in summer, followed by spring and autumn, and the lowest in winter. (4) The average flash drought duration is mostly 6~10 pentads, it is longer in Northwest China identified by the evapotranspiration method, while it is longer in parts of northwestern and central China by the soil moisture method. (5) The areas with high-intensity flash droughts are Northeast China, Northwest China, Tibet Autonomous Region, and Taiwan Province identified by the evapotranspiration method, while it is in the Southern region by the soil moisture method. The two methods conduct distinct results, the suitability for different situations is waiting for further investigations.
骤旱蒸散发土壤水分趋势中国
flash droughtevapotranspirationsoil moisturetrendChina
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