1.中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东 广州 510275
2.珠江水利科学研究院,广东 广州 510611
陈子燊(1952年生),男;研究方向:极端水文气象事件风险;E-mail:eesczs@mail.sysu.edu.cn
杨芳(1978年生),女;研究方向:河口治理及洪涝灾害防御;E-mail:yangf21@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
纸质出版日期:2023-11-25,
网络出版日期:2023-07-25,
收稿日期:2023-03-15,
录用日期:2023-04-07
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陈子燊,杨芳,高时友.粤港澳大湾区中心城市典型设计暴雨过程线分析[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2023,62(06):1-10.
CHEN Zishen,YANG fang,GAO Shiyou.Analysis on typical design rainstorm hydrographs of central cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2023,62(06):1-10.
陈子燊,杨芳,高时友.粤港澳大湾区中心城市典型设计暴雨过程线分析[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2023,62(06):1-10. DOI: 10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2023D020.
CHEN Zishen,YANG fang,GAO Shiyou.Analysis on typical design rainstorm hydrographs of central cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2023,62(06):1-10. DOI: 10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2023D020.
对粤港澳大湾区4个中心城市约60 a观测的前、后汛期逐时雨量,以最大1 h雨量(为雨峰)、相应的最大6 h雨量和最大24 h雨量为样本,采用非对称Archimedean Gumbel-Hougaard极值copula构建3个时段雨量联合分布的典型设计暴雨过程线。主要结论:1) 采用3个历时雨量联合分布推求的城市设计暴雨值大于2个时段联合分布和单一时段设计暴雨值,同频率放大的设计暴雨过程线,整体效果相对最优,对城市设计暴雨过程线的研究方法提供了新思路;2) 采用3个历时雨量联合分布推求的4个城市设计暴雨过程线,更客观地代表了所在城市的雨型特征,为进一步设计雨型的研究提供了新方法;3) 以24 h最大雨量构建的典型设计暴雨过程线具代表性,按同频率放大的典型设计暴雨过程线可作为城市汛期排水防涝工程设计的参考依据。
The hourly rainfall of the four central cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) during the pre-and post-flood seasons over a period of about 60 years is studied in this paper. The maximum 1-hour rainfall (rain peak), the maximum 6-hour rainfall, and the maximum 24-hour rainfall are taken as samples. The asymmetric Archimedean Gumbel-Hougaard extreme copula is used to construct a typical design of rainstorm hydrographs for the joint distribution of rainfall in three durations. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The urban design rainstorm value calculated from the joint distribution of 3 durations of rainfall is greater than the combined distribution of 2 durations and the design rainstorm value of a single period, and the overall effect of the design rainstorm hydrograph with the same frequency amplification is relatively optimal, which provides a new idea for the research method of urban design rainstorm hydrograph. (2) The design of rainstorm hydrographs for 4 cities based on the joint distribution of 3 rainfall durations more objectively represents the rain pattern characteristics of the cities in which they are located, providing a new method for further research on the design of rain patterns. (3) The typical design of rainstorm hydrographs constructed with the maximum rainfall of 24 hours is representative. The typical design of rainstorm hydrographs amplified with the same frequency can be used as a reference for the city design of drainage and waterlogging control engineering in flood season.
非对称极值Copula函数设计暴雨过程线“或”重现期雨型
asymmetrical extreme value Copuladesign rainstorm hydrographs‘OR’ return periodrainfall patterns
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