1960~2017年秦巴山地及邻近区域极端气温时空变化特征

李富民; 殷淑燕; 殷田园

doi:10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2019.11.14.2019D048

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

1960~2017年秦巴山地及邻近区域极端气温时空变化特征

研究论文 | 更新时间：2023-11-01

- 1960~2017年秦巴山地及邻近区域极端气温时空变化特征
- The spatial-temporal variations of extreme temperatures in the Qinling-Daba mountains and adjacent areas during 1960-2017
- 中山大学学报(自然科学版) 2020年59卷第6期页码：80-92
- 作者机构：
  
  陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院，陕西西安 710119
- 作者简介：
  
  李富民（1994年生），男；研究方向：气候变化与自然灾害；E-mail:809019905@qq.com
  殷淑燕（1970年生），女；研究方向：气候变化与自然灾害；E-mail:yinshy@snnu.edu.cn
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金(41771110);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2017JM4026)
- DOI：10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2019.11.14.2019D048
  中图分类号： P467
- 纸质出版日期：2020-11-25，
  
  收稿日期：2019-11-25，
扫描看全文
李富民,殷淑燕,殷田园.1960~2017年秦巴山地及邻近区域极端气温时空变化特征[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2020,59(06):80-92.

LI Fumin,Shuyan YIN,YIN Tianyuan.The spatial-temporal variations of extreme temperatures in the Qinling-Daba mountains and adjacent areas during 1960-2017[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2020,59(06):80-92.
李富民,殷淑燕,殷田园.1960~2017年秦巴山地及邻近区域极端气温时空变化特征[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2020,59(06):80-92. DOI： 10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2019.11.14.2019D048.

LI Fumin,Shuyan YIN,YIN Tianyuan.The spatial-temporal variations of extreme temperatures in the Qinling-Daba mountains and adjacent areas during 1960-2017[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2020,59(06):80-92. DOI： 10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2019.11.14.2019D048.

摘要

基于1960~2017年秦巴山地及邻近区域47个气象站点逐日气温资料，利用线性倾向估计、最小二乘法、Manna-Mendal突变检验等分析该地区极端气温的时空变化特征。结果表明：1）近58年来极端气温极值指数、夏季日数、热夜日数、暖昼（夜）日数、热持续日数、生物生长季日数呈增加趋势，极端低温指数呈减小趋势。2）极端气温空间变化差异显著。秦岭以北、东部地区极端气温指数对气候变化的响应较秦岭南部与西部更为明显。秦岭以北的冰冻日数、霜冻日数、冷昼日数呈下降趋势，秦岭东部、北部区的夏季日数、暖昼（夜）日数和热持续日数呈上升趋势。3）相关分析表明，极值指数和DTR与其他指数相关性差，其余极端指数存在良好的相关性。同时多数极端气温指数变化与平均气温变化同步。4）突变分析显示，平均气温在1996年发生突变。突变前后对秦巴山地及邻近区域地区的极端气温的影响有所差异，极端高温指数增强趋势显著，极端低温指数呈现减小趋势，表明极端气温变化与区域气候变暖存在良好的相关性。5）Hurst指数结果表明，未来秦巴山地及邻近区域极端气温指数趋势呈现出同向变化特征。

Abstract

Based on the daily temperature data of 47 meteorological stations in the Qinling-Daba mountains and adjacent areas from 1960 to 2017， the spatial-temporal characteristics of extreme temperature were analyzed by using climate tendency rate， correlation analysis and M-K mutation test. The results are as follows ：（1） In the past 58 years， the extreme temperature extreme index， summer days， hot night days， warm day （night） days， heat duration days， and biological growth season days tended to increase， the extreme low temperature index tended to decrease. （2） The spatial variation of extreme temperature changes in the northern and southern Qinling Mountains is significant； the extreme temperature index in the northern and eastern Qinling Mountains increased in response to climate change more obviously than in the southern and western Qinling Mountains. The number of freezing days， frost days and cold days in the northern and adjacent areas showed a downward trend； the number of summer days， warm days （nights） and heat-sustaining days in the eastern and northern Qinling Mountains showed an upward trend. （3） The average temperature changed suddenly in 1996. The effects of extreme temperature events on the northern and southern Qinling Mountains were different. The extreme high temperature index showed a significant increase trend， and the extreme low temperature index showed a decreasing trend， indicating that there is a good correlation between extreme temperature changes and climate warming. （4） Pearson correlation indicated that all the extreme temperature indices had a good correlation， except for the extreme indices. （5） The Hurst index results show the same direction change trend of extreme temperature index in the northern and southern Qinling Mountains.

关键词

极端气温指数趋势变化空间差异秦巴山地及邻近区域

Keywords

extreme temperature indextrend changespatial differencethe northern and southern Qinling mountains

references

IPCC. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report，ChangeClimate 2013： The Physical Science Basis： summary for policy makers ［R/OL］. [2013-10-28].

http.//www.climatechange2013.orgimages /uploads/WGIAR5-SPM_Approved 27Sep2013.pdfwww.climatechange2013.orgimages/uploads/WGIAR5-SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf.

佘敦先，夏军，张永勇，等.近50年来淮河流域极端降水的时空变化及统计特征［J］.地理学报，2011， 66（9）：1200-1210.

SHE D X ，XIA J， ZHANG Y Y， et al.The trend analysis and statistical distribution of extreme rainfall events in the Huaihe River basin in the past 50 years［J］. Acta Geographica Sinica， 2011， 66（9）：1200-1210.

EASTERLING D R， EVANS J L， GROLSMAN P Y， et al. Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events： A brief review ［J］. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society， 2000， 81（3）：417-425.

秦大河.气候变化科学与人类可持续发展［J］.地理科学进展，2014，33（7）：874-883

QIN D H. Climate change science and human sustainable development［J］. Progress in Geography， 2014，33（7）：874-883

周浩，程炳岩，叶钊，等.重庆汛期降水与西太平洋副热带高压的关系［J］.云南大学学报（自然科学版），2010， 32（1）：63-67.

ZHOU H, CHENG B Y, YE Z, et al. The relationship between the precipitation in Chongqing during the flood season and the western Pacific subtropical high[J]. Journal of Yunnan University (Natural Science Edition) ,2010, 32(1):63-67.

CHOI G, COLLINS D, REN G Y, et al. Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the Asia-Pacific Network and adjacent areas, 1955-2007[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2009, 29(13): 1906-1925.

EASTERLING D R, HORTON B, JONES P D, et al. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe[J]. Science, 1997,277(5324):364-367

PLUMMER N, SALINGER M J, NICHOLLS N, et al. Changes in climate extremes over the Australian and adjacent areas and New Zealand during the twentieth century[J]. Climatic Change, 1999, 42(1):183-202.

ALEXANDER L V, ZHANG X, PETERSON T C, et al. Global observed changes daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2006, 115(D5):1042-1063

KLEIN TANK A M G, KEEN G P. Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe,1946-1999[J].Journal of Climate, 2003,16:3665-3680.

张立伟，宋春英，延军平，等.秦岭南北年极端气温的时空变化趋势研究［J］.地理科学，2011，31（8）：1007-1010.

ZHANG L W, SONG C Y,YAN J P, et al. Research on the spatiotemporal variation trend of the extreme temperature in south and north of Qinling mountains[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2011,31(8):1007-1010.

赵安周，刘宪锋，朱秀芳，等.1965-2013年黄土高原地区极端气温趋势变化及空间差异［J］.地理研究， 2016， 35（4）：639-652.

ZHAO A Z, LIU X F, ZHU X F, et al. Trends and spatial differences of extreme temperature trends in the Loess Plateau from 1965 to 2013[J].Geographical Research, 2016, 35(4):639-652.

李双双，杨赛霓.1960～2014年北京极端气温事件变化特征［J］.地理科学， 2015，35（12）：1640-1647.

LI S S， YANG S N. Characteristics of Beijing extreme temperature events from 1960 to 2014［J］. Scientia Geographica Sinica， 2015，35（12）：1640-1647.

李红英，高振荣，王胜，等.近60a河西走廊极端气温的变化特征分析［J］.干旱区地理，2015， 38（1）：1-9.

LI H Y， GAO Z R，WANG S， et al. Analysis on the characteristics of extreme temperature change in the Hexi Corridor in the past 60a［J］. Arid Land Geography，2015， 38（1）：1-9.

刘青娥，吴孝情，陈晓宏，等.珠江流域1960-2012年极端气温的时空变化特征［J］.自然资源学报， 2015（8）：1356-1366.

LIU Q E, WU X Q, CHEN X H,et al. Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme temperatures in the Pearl River Basin from 1960 to 2012[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2015(8):1356-1366.

香薇，程志刚，周波涛，等.1975-2016年秦巴山区极端气温事件的空间差异性分析［J］.气候变化研究进展， 2018，14（4）：362-370.

XIANG W,CHENG Z G,ZHOU B T, et al. Spatial difference analysis of extreme temperature events in Qinba mountain area from 1975 to 2016[J].Climate Change Research , 2018, 14(4):362-370.

李敏敏，延军平.全球变化下秦岭南北旱涝时空变化格局［J］.资源科学，2013，35（3）：638-645.

LI M M,YAN J P. Temporal and spatial variation patterns of drought and flood in south and north Qinling mountains under global change[J].Resources Science,2013,35(3):638-645.

周旗，卞娟娟，郑景云，等.秦岭南北1951-2009年的气温与热量资源变化［J］.地理学报，2011，66（9）：1211-1217.

ZHOU Q,BIAN J J,ZHENG,J Y, et al. Changes of air temperature and heat resources from 1951 to 2009 in Qinling mountains[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(9):1211-1217.

胡琦，潘学标，邵长秀，等.1961-2010年中国农业热量资源分布和变化特征［J］.中国农业气象，2014，35（2）：119-127.

HU Q, PAN X B, SHAO C X, et al. Distribution and variation characteristics of agricultural thermal resources in China from 1961 to 2010[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(2):119-127.

王琼，张明军，王圣杰，等.1962-2011年长江流域极端气温事件分析［J］.地理学报，2013， 68（5）：611-625.

WANG Q, ZHANG M J,WANG S J, et al. Analysis of extreme temperature events in the Yangtze River basin from 1962 to 2011[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2013, 68(5):611-625.

任志艳，延军平，张立伟，等.黄土高原地区年极端气温的变化特征［J］.中国农业气象，2013， 34（3）：289-293.

REN Z Y,YAN J P, ZHANG L W, et al. Variation characteristics of annual extreme temperature in the Loess Plateau[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013, 34(3):289-293.

陈海山，范苏丹，张新华，等.中国近50年极端降水事件变化特征的季节性差异［J］.大气科学学报，2009，32（6）：744-751

CHEN H S,FAN S D,ZHANG X H,et al. Seasonal differences in the changing characteristics of extreme precipitation events in China in the past 50 years[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences，2009，32（6）：744-751

李志，郑粉莉.1961-2007年黄土高原极端降水事件的时空变化分析［J］.自然资源学报，2010， 25（2）：291-299.

LI Z, ZHENG F L. Temporal and spatial analysis of extreme precipitation events on the Loess Plateau from 1961 to 2007[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(2):291-299.

王志福，钱永甫.中国极端降水事件的频数和强度特征［J］.水科学进展，2009，20（1）：1-9.

WANG Z F,QIAN Y P. Frequency and intensity characteristics of extreme precipitation events in China[J].Advances in Water Science,2009,20(1):1-9.

LIN X D, YIN Z Y, SHAO X M, et al. Temporal trends and variability of daily maximum and minimum, extreme temperature events, and growing season length over the eastern and central Tibetan plateau during 1961-2003[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2006,111(D19):D19109. DOI: 10.1029/2005JD006915http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006915.

王蒙，殷淑燕.近52a长江中下游地区极端降水的时空变化特征［J］.长江流域资源与环境，2015， 24（7）：1221-1229.

WANG M,YIN S Y. Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the past 52a[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2015, 24(7):1221-1229.

浏览量

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

1961-2014年华北平原二十四节气气温变化特征

淮北平原区浅层地下水埋深时空分布特征