珠江流域干旱时空变化的经验诊断分析

陈子燊

doi:10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2019.09.22.2019D038

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珠江流域干旱时空变化的经验诊断分析

研究论文 | 更新时间：2023-11-01

- 珠江流域干旱时空变化的经验诊断分析
- Empirical diagnostic analysis on spatial and temporal variations of droughts in the Pearl River basin, China
- 中山大学学报(自然科学版) 2020年59卷第4期页码：33-42
- 作者机构：
  
  1.中山大学新华学院，广东广州 510520
  2.中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州 510275
- 作者简介：
  
  陈子燊(1952年生),男；研究方向：极端水文事件与风险研究；E-mail:eesczs@mail.sysu.edu.cn
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金(41371498;41771044);广东省科学院发展专项资金项目(2019GDASYL-0104003;2020GDASYL-20200401001);水利部珠江河口动力学及伴生过程调控重点实验室开放研究基金([2018]KJ08);广东省科技计划项目(2018B030324002)
- DOI：10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2019.09.22.2019D038
  中图分类号： TV122
- 纸质出版日期：2020-07-20，
  
  收稿日期：2019-09-22，
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陈子燊.珠江流域干旱时空变化的经验诊断分析[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2020,59(04):33-42.

CHEN Zishen.Empirical diagnostic analysis on spatial and temporal variations of droughts in the Pearl River basin, China[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2020,59(04):33-42.
陈子燊.珠江流域干旱时空变化的经验诊断分析[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2020,59(04):33-42. DOI： 10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2019.09.22.2019D038.

CHEN Zishen.Empirical diagnostic analysis on spatial and temporal variations of droughts in the Pearl River basin, China[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2020,59(04):33-42. DOI： 10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2019.09.22.2019D038.

摘要

根据1961~2011年珠江流域多时间尺度标准化蒸散发指数（SPEI），应用旋转经验正交函数分解、趋势和突变检验、小波谱与小波全域相干谱分析等方法，分析珠江流域该时期干旱空间分布与时间变化特征。结果显示：1）干旱空间分布与时间变化差异明显，20世纪70年代以来干旱发生事件持续增多，21世纪以来珠江流域中旱、重旱事件、干旱历时和强度都显著加大，秋旱尤为突出；2）根据SPEI的REOF时空分解，可将珠江流域划分成6个空间模态，其载荷中心分别位于的东江流域、桂北、桂东南、桂西南、黔南和滇东，各分区普遍存在干旱趋势，其中黔南和滇东干旱趋势显著，已成为珠江流域的干旱中心；3）6个分区的干湿变化具有2~8 a的厄尔尼诺变化的振荡周期，部分分区显示与太阳黑子活动关联的11 a及22 a变化周期，各个分区对ENSO事件的响应存在显著差异。

Abstract

Based on the multiple time scale index of standardization evaporation(SPEI) in the Pearl River basin from 1961 to 2011

the spatial structure distribution and temporal variation characteristics of drought in the Pearl River basin were analyzed by using the methods of rotating empirical orthogonal function decomposition

trend and mutation tests

wavelet spectral and wavelet global coherence spectral analysis. The results show that: 1) The spatial distribution and temporal variation of drought in the Pearl River basin are significantly different in the past 50 years; the number of drought events has been increasing since the 1970s. The duration and intensity of drought events in the Pearl River basin have increased significantly since the 21st century. 2) According to SPEI's REOF spatial decomposition

the Pearl River basin can be divided into 6 spatial modes

and the load centers are located in the south Guizhou and east Yunnan of the Dongjiang river basin in the north Guangxi

the southeast Guangxi

the southwest Guangxi

and the south Guizhou and the east Yunnan

respectively. There is a general drought trend in each region. The southern Guizhou and eastern Yunnan have become the drought center of the Pearl River basin. 3) The wet-dry variation in six zones has an oscillation period of 2-8 year El Nino variation. Some regions show 11 year and 22 year change periods associated with sunspot activities

and the response of each region to ENSO events is significantly different.

关键词

珠江流域标准化降水蒸散量指数干旱时空变化旋转经验正交函数小波分析小波全域相干谱

Keywords

the Pearl River basinstandardized precipitation evapotranspiration indexspatial and temporal variation of droughtrotation of empirical orthogonal functionwavelet analysiswavelet global coherence spectrum

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