新疆气候干湿变化特征分析
The characteristics of climate change in Xinjiang during 1961-2015
- 中山大学学报(自然科学版) 2020年59卷第5期 页码：126-133
- 作者机构：
1.新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院/新疆干旱区湖泊环境与资源实验室，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830054
2.中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所，新疆 乌鲁木齐 83000
3.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011
- 作者简介：
赵慧（1994年生），女；研究方向：干旱区资源与环境变化研究；E-mail:ziyuhe528@163.com
李新国（1971年生），男；研究方向：干旱区水土资源与环境变化及其遥感应用研究；E-mail:onlinelxg@sina.com
- 基金信息：国家自然科学基金(41661047);中国沙漠气象科学基金(Sqj2017012);新疆维吾尔自治区“天山青年”计划项目(2017Q092);新疆维吾尔自治区高层次引进人才项目(Y642091;Y644131)
DOI：10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2019.05.07.2019D020
中图分类号： S162.1纸质出版日期：2020-09-25，
收稿日期：2019-05-07，
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赵慧,姚俊强,李新国等.新疆气候干湿变化特征分析[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2020,59(05):126-133.
ZHAO Hui,YAO Junqiang,LI Xinguo,et al.The characteristics of climate change in Xinjiang during 1961-2015[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2020,59(05):126-133.
赵慧,姚俊强,李新国等.新疆气候干湿变化特征分析[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2020,59(05):126-133. DOI： 10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2019.05.07.2019D020.
ZHAO Hui,YAO Junqiang,LI Xinguo,et al.The characteristics of climate change in Xinjiang during 1961-2015[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2020,59(05):126-133. DOI： 10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2019.05.07.2019D020.
摘要
选取1961～2015年新疆55个气象站点的逐月观测气温、降水数据，采用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)，3个月时间尺度可以反映季节的干湿变化状况，因此采用SPEI-3分析得到近55年新疆气候的干湿变化特征。结果表明:1）从 SPEI-3每10年干湿变化速率分析，新疆气候整体有微弱的变干趋势，变化速率为0.055，表现在不同站点上的干湿变化速率有所不同，最大的变湿速率为0.229，最大的变干速率为0.400。 2）在1961～1987年，处于干旱和干旱缓解期的交替期，1987～1996年处于干旱缓解期，其中1997年和2008年
是较严重的干旱年份，干旱站点数比例分别为82%和78%；在阈值
R
1
= -0.20、-0.30、-0.40下，1997年干旱烈度和干旱历时均达到最大值。3）EOF1特征向量值最大为0.150，反映研究区整体干湿变化在减弱，且有变干趋势；EOF2和REOF2是南北疆反向变化，特征向量值最大值分别为0.210和0.250，从线性变化趋势可看出北疆的干旱化加剧，而南疆变干趋势减弱；EOF3和REOF3是东西相反的分布形式，最大特征向量值均为0.320，表现为东天山有变干趋势，而南疆西部有干旱缓解趋势。
Abstract
By using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)
the dry-wet climate changes on the 3-month time scale in the past 55 years were documented based on monthly temperatures and precipitation data from 1961 to 2015 from 55 meteorological stations in Xinjiang. The results are shown as follows: (1) The analysis of SPEI-3 on dry and wet change rates every 10 years suggested a weak trend of dryness
with a change rate of 0.055. The dry and wet change rates varied at different sites with the maximum wet rate of 0.229 and the maximum drying rate of 0.400. (2) There existed an alternating period of drought and drought relief from 1961 to 1987 and a drought relief period from 1987 to 1996. The severe drought occurred in 1997 and 2008
with the proportions of drought sites of 82% and 78%
respectively
under the threshold
R
1
= -0.20
-0.30
-0.40. The drought intensity and the duration of drought reached the maximum in 1997. (3) The maximum EOF1 feature vector value was 0.150
reflecting that the overall dry and wet changes were weakening and tended to become dry in the study area. EOF2 and REOF2 showed reverse changes in northern and southern Xinjiang
with the maximum feature vector values of 0.210 and 0.250
respectively. The linear trend indicated that the drought was increasing in northern Xinjiang
while the trend of drying out was weakening in southern Xinjiang. EOF3 and REOF3 were in the opposite distribution form. The maximum feature vector value was 0.320
suggesting that the east Tianshan tended to dry out
while the western South Xinjiang showed a drought relief trend.
关键词
干湿变化特征经验正交函数标准化降水蒸散指数干旱历时新疆
Keywords
dry and wet changeempirical orthogonal functionSPEI indextemporal sequenceXinjiang
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