HUANG Qiang, CHEN Zishen, LIU Zhanming, et al. Regional Drought Risk Assessment across the Pearl River Basin[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni, 2013,52(5):140-147.
HUANG Qiang, CHEN Zishen, LIU Zhanming, et al. Regional Drought Risk Assessment across the Pearl River Basin[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni, 2013,52(5):140-147.DOI:
The 3-month standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index was calculated based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data of 42 meterological stations in the Pearl River basin from 1951 to 2011. The Pearl River basin was divided into 5 subregions characterized by the variation of drought based on the rotated empirical orthogonal function method. The duration and intensity of drought were selected to be the characteristic variables according to the run theory
and the drought risk assessment was made across the Pearl River basin by using a multivariate regional frequency analysis approach. The five subregions divided from the Pearl River basin are all homogeneous
and the goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalized normal and Pearson type Ⅲ distributions are best for the duration as a regional marginal distribution for different subregions
while generalized Parato distribution is best for the intensity. The Clayton copula is the best-fit regional copula for subregions one
three
and five
and the Arch13 copula is best for subregions two and four. Considering the drought return years as a risk
different districts across the Pearl River basin might suffer different drought risks. From the perspective of region
the districts of Hejiang
Guijiang
Zuojiang and Youjiang River basin will suffer a higher drought risk than others and should be caught enough attention. While from the perspective of administration
Guangxi will be the most dangerous province for all kinds of drought risks.
关键词
标准化降水蒸散发指数旋转经验正交函数干旱风险copula函数多变量区域频率分析珠江流域
Keywords
standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indexrotated empirical orthogonal functiondrought risksmultivariate regional frequency analysiscopula functionthe Pearl River basin