GUAN Shuai, LIN Yingyan, ZHA Xini, et al. Copula Function-Based Flood Coincidence Probability Analysis for Mainstream and Tributary of the Hanjiang River Basin[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni, 2015,54(5):130-137.
GUAN Shuai, LIN Yingyan, ZHA Xini, et al. Copula Function-Based Flood Coincidence Probability Analysis for Mainstream and Tributary of the Hanjiang River Basin[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni, 2015,54(5):130-137.DOI:
The Hanjiang river has been played an important role in economic and social development in Guangdong Province. It is quite necessary to find out the characteristics
occurrences and the dynamic rule of flood along this river for flood control and protection. In this paper
daily streamflow data from three hydrological stations during 1959-2000 were analyzed using the copula function to investigate the probability behavior of the flood coincidence in the Hanjiang river basin. The flood characteristics were defined as annual maximum daily flow,which were analyzed through the joint return periods,the coincidence risk of flood magnitudes and conditional probability. Obtained results showed: ① during the same return period,the coincidence risk of flood magnitudes of Chaoan and Hengshan stations was bigger than Chaoan and Xikou stations,and that of Hengshan and Xikou is the smallest. ② the flood of the Meijiang accounted for a larger proportion in Chaoan station than in the Tingjiang. ③ based on joint distribution of the three stations,diverse streamflow combination could be obtained under certain joint return periods and current return periods
as well as the probabilities of any streamflow combination.