纸质出版日期:2016,
网络出版日期:2016-10-25
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基于安徽省15个气象站点1961-2013年逐月降水数据统计资料,运用线性趋势分析、MannKendall突变检验、小波分析以及Z 指数,对安徽省气候和旱涝的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明:① 近53 a安徽省气候经历了冷干-冷湿-暖湿-暖干的转变,整体呈现暖湿化特征,但21世纪以来则逐渐转变成暖干化。② 四季降水不同步,夏季和冬季降水呈上升趋势,春季和秋季降水则呈下降趋势,其中夏季降水增加对安徽省降水变化的贡献率最大。降水周期振荡规律显著,存在 28, 22, 14 和4 a时间尺度上的震荡周期。③ 近53 a安徽省旱涝事件整体上表现为下降趋势,存在涝-旱-涝的循环交替过程,且年代际变化比较明显。④ 安徽省多年平均降水在空间分布上呈现南多北少的格局,干旱主要发生在皖西大别山北麓地区,而洪涝主要发生在淮河一带和长江水系下游区。
Based on the meteorological data of 15 stations in Anhui province, influences of different disaster inducing factors on drought and flood were analyzed by using linear regression, Mann-Kendall test method, wavelet analysis and Z index to explore the trend of drought and floor in this province under global warming condition. The results showed that: ① Anhui has experienced a series of climate phase transformation from cold-dry to cold-wet, warm-wet, and warm-dry during recent 53 years, with warming and wetting trend on the whole, but warming and drying since the 21th century. ② The summer and winter precipitation shows an upward trend, while the autumn and spring precipitation decreases; summer precipitation increase makes the largest contribution to the precipitation changes. On the time scale, there are 28, 22, 14 and 4 year oscillation cycles. ③ Droughts and floods in recent 53 years present a seriously overall downward trend, with alternation of floods and droughts and an obvious inter-decadal variation. ④ In the aspect of spatial distribution, droughts mainly occur at the juncture of Wanxi area, while floods mainly occur in the Huaihe River and the Yangtze River downstream.
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