ZHANG Zhenghao, ZHANG Qiang, SHI Peijun. Copula-based flood frequency analysis with consideration of synchronous occurrence of wet/dry events in the East River basin[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni, 2016,55(6):10-19.
ZHANG Zhenghao, ZHANG Qiang, SHI Peijun. Copula-based flood frequency analysis with consideration of synchronous occurrence of wet/dry events in the East River basin[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni, 2016,55(6):10-19.DOI:
As the critical water source of large cities such as Hong Kong and Guangzhou
the East River is influenced significantly in the hydrological processes by the Xinfengjiang
Fengshuba and Baipenzhu reservoirs. Copula functions are used to analyze the possibly-synchronous occurrence of high- and low-flow regimes in the East River. The results indicate that: ① The marginal distribution with the highest goodness-of-fit is log-normal distribution and generalized extreme value distribution. Meanwhile
the Gumbel Hougaard Copula has the best fitting efficacy for the inflow series of the hydrological stations; ② Three water-reservoirs have great impact on the synchronous occurrence of high and low flow events at 6 pairs of hydrological stations in the downstream
the reservoirs have the filling valley and modulating peak effects which cause flattened hydrological processes when compared to those in the upper and middle East River basin. Besides
the synchronous occurrences of normal vs. normal flows in the upper and the middle East River basin show an increasing trend
causing flattened hydrological variation of the East River basin; ③ The hydrological processes at the Longchuan
Lingyuan
Lingxia and Boluo stations are heavily influenced by hydraulic facilities and scare occurrences can be observed for the peak flood flow and flood discharge
which greatly reduced the flood risks; ④ The construction of water reservoirs can flatten the hydrological processes and reduce the occurrence frequency of high and low flows
being beneficial for flood mitigation.
关键词
边缘分布Copula函数丰枯遭遇重现期
Keywords
marginal distributioncopula functionssynchronous occurrencesreturn period