1. 中山大学地理科学与规划学院∥华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广东,广州,510275
2.
纸质出版日期:2017,
网络出版日期:2017-1-25,
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顾西辉, 张强, 孔冬冬, 等. 低频气候变化引起的珠江流域年均和洪峰流量变化特征及灵敏度分析[J]. 中山大学学报(自然科学版)(中英文), 2017,56(1):138-144.
GU Xihui, ZHANG Qiang, KONG Dongdong, et al. Low frequency climate variability induced annual mean and annual maxim streamflow variations and related sensitivity across the Pearl River basin[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni, 2017,56(1):138-144.
顾西辉, 张强, 孔冬冬, 等. 低频气候变化引起的珠江流域年均和洪峰流量变化特征及灵敏度分析[J]. 中山大学学报(自然科学版)(中英文), 2017,56(1):138-144. DOI:
GU Xihui, ZHANG Qiang, KONG Dongdong, et al. Low frequency climate variability induced annual mean and annual maxim streamflow variations and related sensitivity across the Pearl River basin[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni, 2017,56(1):138-144. DOI:
低频气候变化是引起内陆径流年际和年代际变化的一个重要驱动因子。通过分析El Nino/Southern Oscillation(ENSO)、North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)、Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)和Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)等主要低频气候因子对珠江流域年均(Q
ann
)流量和洪峰流量(Q
max
)的影响及其影响量级,研究结果表明珠江流域流量受到低频气候因子的显著影响,但影响强度的时间平稳性与趋势性有显著区域差异。对相应区域具有持续显著影响及相关强度呈显著上升趋势的气候因子可以作为Q
ann
和Q
max
的预测信号。低频气候因子位于不同的相位,导致珠江流域流量发生相应的变化:负相位ENSO、NAO和PDO易致较低Q
ann
导致水文干旱风险的增加;而正相位的ENSO、IOD及负相位NAO和PDO易引发较高Q
max
导致极端洪灾风险增加。对比Q
ann
和Q
max
Q
max
对于气候指标变化的灵敏度要高于Q
ann
Q
max
灵敏度高于Q
ann
的面积比例分别为56%、59%、71%和36%。研究对于根据低频气候变化信号预测珠江流域Q
ann
与Q
max
及珠江流域洪旱灾害的预报与预警具有重要理论意义与实际应用价值。
Variability of the low-frequency climate change is the principle driver for the annual and interannual streamflow changes. The influences of lowfrequency climate indices such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
on annual mean discharge (Q
ann
) and annual peak discharge (Q
max
) of the Pearl River basin have been quantitatively analyzed. The results show that: ① Q
ann
and Q
max
were significantly affected by different climate indices in different regions with distinctly different spatial patterns in terms of correlation degrees and sensitivity and also the trends of impact strength. ENSO and IOD at the same year exerted a persistent significant impact on the Q
ann
at the regions covering most of the West River basin
and the strength of the correlation increased significantly
which can be taken as the predictor for Q
ann
. For the same reason
PDO at the same year can be taken as the predictor for Q
ann
in the eastern parts of the Pearl River basin and the North River basin
and NAO
IOD a year earlier and NAO at the same year can be taken as the predictor for Q
max
in the middle Pearl River basin; ② As for the entire Pearl River basin
negativephase ENSO
NAO and PDO tend to cause Q
ann
at lower levels with an increasing risk of droughts. However
positivephase ENSO
IOD and negative phase NAO and PDO tend to cause Q
max
at higher levels with an increasing risk of extreme floods; ③ Q
max
was more sensitive to variability of atmospheric circulation than Q
ann
. Q
ann
varied between 03% and 24%
while Q
max
varied between 0.5% and 31% per unit index change. The NAO and IOD both at the same year and a year earlier show a higher sensitivity in most area of the Pearl River basin
but the sensitivity difference between Q
ann
and Q
max
was significant
the latter had an area ratio of 56%
59%
71% and 36% sensitivity higher than the former.
低频气候变化年平均流量年洪峰流量灵敏度
low-frequency climate indicesannual mean dischargeannual peak dischargesensitivity
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