LIU Zufa, TAN Mingxin, ZHA Xini, et al. Hydrological time series forecasting based on WD-RSPA model——A case study of Makou Station and Shenzhen Station[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni, 2017,56(5):119-126.
LIU Zufa, TAN Mingxin, ZHA Xini, et al. Hydrological time series forecasting based on WD-RSPA model——A case study of Makou Station and Shenzhen Station[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni, 2017,56(5):119-126.DOI:
The traditional hydrological time series prediction models cannot get good prediction accuracy and they generally do not consider the actual noise. A new kind of hydrological forecasting model (Wavelet De-noise and Rank Set Pair Analysis forecasting model
WD-RSPA forecasting model) was built based on wavelet de-noising and set pair analysis
and was applied to predict the annual runoff of Makou Station and the annual precipitation of Shenzhen Station. The results show that when the dimension T=4
the prediction error of Makou Station with coif3RSPA model is 11.97%; and when T=6
the prediction error of Shenzhen Station with db5-RSPA model is 17.73%. Compared to the results predicted by AR(1) model and RSPA model
the results of WD-RSPA model are closer to the observed data
indicating that it is a practicable method to predict the hydrological time series.
关键词
水文时间序列小波消噪秩次集对分析年径流量预测年降雨量预测
Keywords
hydrological time serieswavelet de-noiserank set pair analysisannual runoff forecastingannual precipitation forecasting