Flash drought pattern and trend in China during 1980-2022

QIN Jiasheng; YANG Ting; LÜ Yang

doi:10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.ZR20240062

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Flash drought pattern and trend in China during 1980-2022

Research articles | 更新时间：2024-11-07

- Flash drought pattern and trend in China during 1980-2022
- Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni Vol. 63, Issue 5, Pages: 48-62(2024)
- 作者机构：
  
  中山大学土木工程学院，广东珠海 519082
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.ZR20240062
  CLC： TV213
- Published：25 September 2024，
  
  Published Online：03 July 2024，
  
  Received：02 March 2024，
  
  Accepted：08 May 2024
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
覃佳盛,杨婷,吕洋.1980—2022年我国骤旱特征及趋势分析[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版)(中英文),2024,63(05):48-62.

QIN Jiasheng,YANG Ting,LÜ Yang.Flash drought pattern and trend in China during 1980-2022[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2024,63(05):48-62.
覃佳盛,杨婷,吕洋.1980—2022年我国骤旱特征及趋势分析[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版)(中英文),2024,63(05):48-62. DOI： 10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.ZR20240062.

QIN Jiasheng,YANG Ting,LÜ Yang.Flash drought pattern and trend in China during 1980-2022[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2024,63(05):48-62. DOI： 10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.ZR20240062.

摘要

在气候变化背景下，骤旱事件频发，可在短期内对农业生产和生态系统功能造成巨大影响。因此全面准确掌握我国骤旱特征和变化趋势，对我国干旱风险评估和精准化农业减灾等具有重要意义。本文利用长时间序列陆面模型数据与再分析数据集，分别采用基于蒸发胁迫比和土壤水分的判别方法，对1980—2022年我国骤旱的发生频次、骤旱烈度、持续时间和时空分布等特征进行综合量化分析，并采用趋势分析方法评估不同区域的发展趋势，以全面准确分析我国骤旱特征与发展趋势。结果表明：（1）两种方法均表明我国夏季骤旱频次最高，冬季最低；（2）两种方法识别出的骤旱范围在东南地区较为一致，而在西北地区存在较大差异；（3）基于蒸散发的方法识别出的场次最高的地区为青藏高原地区，基于土壤水分的方法为四川中部地区；（4）骤旱平均持续时间多为6～10候，基于蒸散发的方法识别出西北地区较高，基于土壤水分方法识别出西北部和中部部分地区较高；（5）基于蒸散发的方法显示骤旱烈度较高的地区为东北地区、西北地区、西藏自治区和台湾；基于土壤水分方法显示南方地区骤旱烈度较高。两种方法结果存在明显差异，其阈值选取及区域适用性仍有待深入研究。

Abstract

In the context of global climate change， flash droughts occur frequently and can have a huge impact on agricultural production and ecosystem functions in the short term. Therefore， it is of great significance to comprehensively and accurately describe the characteristics and trends of drought for drought risk assessment and agricultural disaster reduction in China. This study used long-term land surface model data and reanalysis datasets to analyze the frequency， intensity， duration， and spatiotemporal distribution of flash drought events in China from 1980 to 2022. Two flash drought detection methods， based on evapotranspiration stress ratio and soil moisture were adopted， respectively， and the Mann-Kendall trend analysis method was used to evaluate the development trend of flash drought characteristics in different regions. The results show that：（1） The identified flash drought ranges using the two methods are more consistent in southeast China， yet great differences exist in northwest China. （2） The area with the highest occurrence of flash droughts identified by the evapotranspiration-based method is the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau， while that from the soil moisture-based method is the central region of Sichuan Province. （3） Flash drought occurrences distribute unevenly among seasons， which is the highest in summer， followed by spring and autumn， and the lowest in winter. （4） The average flash drought duration is mostly 6~10 pentads， it is longer in Northwest China identified by the evapotranspiration method， while it is longer in parts of northwestern and central China by the soil moisture method. （5） The areas with high-intensity flash droughts are Northeast China， Northwest China， Tibet Autonomous Region， and Taiwan Province identified by the evapotranspiration method， while it is in the Southern region by the soil moisture method. The two methods conduct distinct results， the suitability for different situations is waiting for further investigations.

关键词

骤旱蒸散发土壤水分趋势中国

Keywords

flash droughtevapotranspirationsoil moisturetrendChina

references

蔡文慧，孙鹏，夏春晖，等，2021.基于不同土壤类型的东部季风区骤旱时空演变特征［J］.北京师范大学学报（自然科学版），57（6）：834-844.

程国栋，赵林，李韧，等，2019.青藏高原多年冻土特征、变化及影响［J］.科学通报，64（27）：2783-2795.

刘懿，朱烨，张林齐，等，2021.骤发干旱前期气象驱动条件及可模拟性分析［J］.水科学进展，32（4）：497-507.

王孟浩，江善虎，任立良，等，2023.渭河流域热浪事件影响下的骤旱评估［J］.水利发展研究，23（9）：21-28.

袁星，王钰淼，张苗，等，2020.关于骤旱研究的一些思考［J］.大气科学学报，43（6）：1086-1095.

BAI J，WU G，MAO Y，2023. Significant disparity in spatiotemporal changes of terrestrial evapotranspiration across reanalysis datasets in China from 1982 to 2020［J］.Remote Sens，15： 4522.

CHENG M，ZHONG L，MA Y，et al，2019. A study on the assessment of multi-source satellite soil moisture products and reanalysis data for the Tibetan Plateau［J］. Remote Sens，11（10）： 1196.

CHRISTIAN J I，BASARA J B，OTKIN J A，et al，2019.A methodology for flash drought identification： Application of flash drought frequency across the United States［J］. J Hydrometeorl，20（5）： 833-846.

CHRISTIAN J I，MARTIN E R，BASARA J B，et al，2023. Global projections of flash drought show increased risk in a warming climate［J］. Commun Earth Environ，4： 165.

Da SILVA R M，SANTOS C A G，MOREIRA M，et al，2015. Rainfall and river flow trends using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in the Cobres River basin［J］. Nat Hazards，77（2）： 1205-1221.

DENG S M，TAN X Z，LIU B J ，et al，2022. A reversal in global occurrences of flash drought around 2000 identified by rapid changes in the standardized evaporative stress ratio［J］. Sci Total Environ，848： 157427.

FORD T W，LABOSIER C F，2017. Meteorological conditions associated with the onset of flash drought in the Eastern United States［J］. Agric For Meteorol，247： 414-423.

HAO Z C，AGHAKOUCHAK A，PHILLIPS T J，2013. Changes in concurrent monthly precipitation and temperature extremes［J］. Environ Res Lett，8（3）： 034014.

HOERLING M，EISCHEID J，KUMAR A，et al，2014. Causes and predictability of the 2012 great plains drought［J］. Bull Am Meteorl Soc，95（2）： 269-282.

HOFFMANN D，GALLANT A J E，ARBLASTER J M，2020. Uncertainties in drought from index and data selection［J］. J Geophys Res Atmos，125（18）： e2019JD031946.

KENDALL M G，1975. Rank correlation methods［M］.4th ed. London： Charles Griffin.

LI N，ZHOU C，ZHAO P，2022. The validation of soil moisture from various sources and its influence factors in the Tibetan Plateau［J］. Remote Sens，14（16）：4109.

LI P，JIA L，LU J，et al，2024. A new evapotranspiration-based drought index for flash drought identification and monitoring［J］. Remote Sens，16（5）：780.

LIU Y W，LIU Y B，WANG W，et al，2022. Historical droughts manifest an abrupt shift to a wetter Tibetan Plateau［J］. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci，26（14）： 3825-3845.

MANN H B，1945. Nonparametric tests against trend［J］. Econometrica，13（3）： 245-259.

MO K C，LETTENMAIER D P，2015. Heat wave flash droughts in decline［J］. Geophys Res Lett，42（8）： 2823-2829.

MUKHERJEE S，MISHRA A K，2022. Global flash drought analysis： Uncertainties from indicators and datasets［J］. Earth's Future，10（6）：e2022EF002660.

NGUYEN H，WHEELER M C，OTKIN J A，et al，2019. Using the evaporative stress index to monitor flash drought in Australia［J］. Environ Res Lett，14（6）： 64016.

OTKIN J A，SVOBODA M，HUNT E D，et al，2018. Flash droughts： A review and assessment of the challenges imposed by rapid-onset droughts in the United States［J］. Bull Am Meteorl Soc，99（5）： 911-919.

QIN J，TIAN J，YANG K，et al，2022. Bias correction of satellite soil moisture through data assimilation［J］. J Hydrol，610： 127947.

REYNIERS N，OSBORN T J，ADDOR N，et al，2023. Projected changes in droughts and extreme droughts in Great Britain strongly influenced by the choice of drought index［J］. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci，27（5）： 1151-1171.

SEN P K，1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's Tau［J］. J Am Stat Assoc，63（324）： 1379-1389.

SVOBODA M，LeCOMTE D，HAYES M，et al，2002. The drought monitor［J］. Bull Am Meteorl Soc，83（8）： 1181-1190.

TIAN J，ZHANG Y，2023. Comprehensive validation of seven root zone soil moisture products at 1153 ground sites across China［J］. Int J Digit Earth，16（2）：4008-4022.

XIE Z H，WANG L Y，JIA B H，et al，2016. Measuring and modeling the impact of a severe drought on terrestrial ecosystem CO2 and water fluxes in a subtropical forest［J］. J Geophys Res Biogeosci，121（10）： 2576-2587.

XIE Z，YAO Y，TANG Q，et al，2024. Evaluation of seven satellite-based and two reanalysis global terrestrial evapotranspiration products［J］. J Hydrol ，630：130649.

YANG K，QIN J，ZHAO L，et al，2013. A multi-scale soil moisture and freeze-thaw monitoring network on the third pole［J］.Bull Am Meteorol Soc，94： 1907-1916.

YUAN W P，CAI W W，CHEN Y，et al，2016. Severe summer heatwave and drought strongly reduced carbon uptake in southern China［J］. Sci Rep，6： 18813.

YUAN X，WANG L Y，WU P，et al，2019. Anthropogenic shift towards higher risk of flash drought over China［J］. Nat Commun，10（1）： 4661.

YUE S，PILON P，PHINNEY B，et al，2002. The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series［J］. Hydrol Process，16： 1807-1829.

ZENG Z Q，WU W X，PENUELAS J，et al，2023. Increased risk of flash droughts with raised concurrent hot and dry extremes under global warming［J］. NPJ Clim Atmos Sci，6（1）： 134.

ZHANG Q，MIAO C Y，GOU J J，et al，2023. Spatiotemporal characteristics and forecasting of short-term meteorological drought in China［J］. J Hydrol，624： 129924.

Views

170

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Impact of DHSVM-based multi-source remote sensing soil moisture data assimilation on key elements of hydrological processes —A case study of the Xiangjiang River Basin

广东分区降水的趋势和周期分析

Carbon Storage of Chinese Fir Forest Ecosystem in China

Related Author

ZHU Ke

MIN Xintong

ZHU Qian

WEI Qing

祝薇

陈创买

刘黎明

周文

Related Institution

School of Civil Engineering，Southeast University

中山大学大气科学系

Institute of Forest Ecology,Environment and Protection,CAF,Forestry Ecology Environment Main Laboratory,State Forestry Administration

Liaoning Academy of Forestry



Postal code：510275
Tel：020-84112585，84113223 Email：xuebaozr@mail.sysu.edu.cn
Technical support is provided by Beijing Founder electronics co., LTD 京ICP备09064830号-19 京公网安备11010802024621
It is recommended to read the content of this site in Chrome&IE9+. Please switch to extreme mode in browser 360.
Cookies We use cookies to help provide and enhance our service and tailor content. By continuing, you agree to the use of cookies.

⁰