Modeling the asymptomatic infections for COVID-19 epidemic

SUN Tingzhe; CUI Jun

doi:10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2021E003

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Modeling the asymptomatic infections for COVID-19 epidemic

Research articles | 更新时间：2023-11-01

- Modeling the asymptomatic infections for COVID-19 epidemic
- Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni Vol. 60, Issue 5, Pages: 103-110(2021)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.安庆师范大学生命科学学院，安徽安庆 246133
  2.中山大学生命科学学院，广东广州510275
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2021E003
  CLC： Q612
- Published：25 September 2021，
  
  Published Online：15 June 2021，
  
  Received：18 January 2021，
  
  Accepted：07 May 2021
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孙廷哲,崔隽.模拟新型冠状病毒肺炎无症状感染者传播风险[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2021,60(05):103-110.

SUN Tingzhe,CUI Jun.Modeling the asymptomatic infections for COVID-19 epidemic[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2021,60(05):103-110.
孙廷哲,崔隽.模拟新型冠状病毒肺炎无症状感染者传播风险[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2021,60(05):103-110. DOI： 10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2021E003.

SUN Tingzhe,CUI Jun.Modeling the asymptomatic infections for COVID-19 epidemic[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2021,60(05):103-110. DOI： 10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2021E003.

摘要

新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19，coronavirus disease 2019）的大流行对人类健康造成了巨大威胁。新型冠状病毒肺炎无症状感染者在早期不易被察觉和诊断，但同时具备病毒传播能力。为研究无症状感染者对新型冠状病毒肺炎传播的影响，本文基于之前建立的SCIRA微分方程模型与实际流行病学数据拟合并进行随机模拟。结果显示人群中无症状感染者的完全消除时间显著迟于确诊病例首次清零时间。严格的隔离防控手段可以降低人群间接触，有效阻断病毒传播。若严密防控措施不能在确诊病例全部治愈后予以保持，潜在的无症状感染者将可能诱导第二次疫情暴发。因此，即使确诊病例实现清零，仍需持续实施严格防控措施以遏制潜在的新型冠状病毒肺炎传播。

Abstract

The pandemic of emerging coronavirus disease 2019 （COVID-19） has been a serious threat to public health. Specifically， the asymptomatic patients are not easily identified but contribute significantly to coronavirus transmission. We used a previously developed SCIRA model with asymptomatic populations， fitted the model to the epidemic data and performed stochastic simulations. The results showed that complete recovery of asymptomatic patients usually showed remarkable delays compared to that of diagnosed cases. The mutual contacts among populations can be significantly lowered under strictly controlled measures to impede COVID-19 transmission. If strict interventions are only maintained for short durations after curation of all diagnosed patients， there might be potentially a second outbreak owing to asymptomatic patients. Therefore， strict interventions should be continuously implemented to impede potential COVID-19 transmission even after diagnosed patients are all cured.

关键词

新型冠状病毒肺炎严格防控无症状感染者延迟治愈

Keywords

COVID-19strict interventionasymptomatic patientdelayed recovery

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