To investigate the impact of climate change on agricultural production in the Aksu river basin

climate data of daily air temperature

hours of sunshine

and some of the agriculture data from Aksu and Keping weather stations during 1967-2019 were analyzed for month

season and year by using methods of the single linear regression

accumulative anomaly

Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend analysis

and mutation test. The results show that: (1) The temperature in the study area increased from 1967 to 2019

and the warming tendency rate of Aksu and Keping stations were 0.515 and 0.023 ℃/10a

respectively; the sunshine hours of Aksu and Keping stations showed a decreasing trend

and the trend rates were 3.806 and -32.916 h/10a

respectively. The temperature of Aksu station had a sudden change in 1997

and the sunshine hours of Keping station had a sudden change in 1990. (2) From 1967 to 2019

the average accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ in the study area was 4 240 ℃/d

and the average duration was 210.6 d. After the mutation occurred in 1997

the average value of accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ increased from 4 143 ℃/d to 4 369 ℃/d from 1967 to 1996

and the duration of days increased from 209 d to 214.9 d

which created a good growth environment for crops. (3) In recent 40 years

the amount of chemical fertilizer per unit area in the study area increased from 63.8 kg/hm

2

in 1978 to 1 369 kg/hm

2

in 2018

an increase of 1 304 kg/hm

2

; the cotton yield per unit area increased from 288 kg/hm

2

in 1967 to 1 218 kg/ hm

2

in 2018

with an increase of 930.2 kg/hm

2

and a tendency rate of 262 kg/10a. The sowing date of cotton was advanced by 9 d

while the stopping growth period was delayed by 3 d

thus the growth period was extended by 6 d. (4) With the change of climate in the research area and the continuous development of technology

the warming of temperature increases the yield and quality

which is conducive to the development of agricultural production in the Aksu river basin.