SUN Peng, ZHANG Qiang, DENG Xiaoyu, et al. The Risk Evaluation and Division of the Tarim River Basin. [J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni 53(3):121-127(2014)
DOI:
SUN Peng, ZHANG Qiang, DENG Xiaoyu, et al. The Risk Evaluation and Division of the Tarim River Basin. [J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni 53(3):121-127(2014)DOI:
The Risk Evaluation and Division of the Tarim River Basin
A multi-index drought risk assessment model was developed to combine the strengths of standard precipitation index at different time steps for drought hazard index and composite drought vulnerability indices in the Tarim River Basin (TRB). The spatialtemporal patterns of drought hazard
drought vulnerability and drought risk are analyzed. The results indicate that: (1) Drought hazard is higher in northern and eastern TRB than other areas at 3 month step. It is high in central and northwestern parts at a 12-month time scale. Drought vulnerability index in northwestern and southwestern TRB is higher than other areas. Moreover
drought vulnerability is the highest in southwestern TRB. The correlation coefficients between drought vulnerability index and percentage of agricultural population
dependency ratio
percentage of agricultural economic loss are higher than other drought vulnerability indices. (2) The vulnerability indices including F
P
I
D
A and I in middle and western TRB are higher than indices in eastern and northern TRB
while F is opposite. (3) Droughts pose the highest risk to the western districts of the TRB
while drought risk is the lowest in northeastern and southeastern TRB.
关键词
干旱危险度干旱易损性干旱风险评价塔里木河
Keywords
drought hazarddrought vulnerabilitydrought risk assessmenttarim river basin