Research on Joint Probability Distribution of Drought Duration and Intensity of Hanjiang Based on GH Copula Functions

PAN Cuili; CHEN Zishen

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Research on Joint Probability Distribution of Drought Duration and Intensity of Hanjiang Based on GH Copula Functions

更新时间：2023-12-11

- Research on Joint Probability Distribution of Drought Duration and Intensity of Hanjiang Based on GH Copula Functions
- Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni Vol. 54, Issue 1, Pages: 110-115(2015)
- 作者机构：
  
  中山大学水资源与环境系,广东,广州,510275
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2015，
  
  Published Online：25 January 2015，
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PAN Cuili, CHEN Zishen. Research on Joint Probability Distribution of Drought Duration and Intensity of Hanjiang Based on GH Copula Functions. [J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni 54(1):110-115(2015)
DOI：

PAN Cuili, CHEN Zishen. Research on Joint Probability Distribution of Drought Duration and Intensity of Hanjiang Based on GH Copula Functions. [J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni 54(1):110-115(2015) DOI：

摘要

利用韩江流域水口站、溪口站、潮安站3个站1956-2011年的月径流数据，计算6个月尺度的径流干旱指数SDI作为水文干旱分析指标，并根据游程理论提取干旱历时和干旱程度2个变量的要素值，采用两变量联合概率分布方法对韩江流域的干旱特征进行分析。通过比较各分布的拟合指标优选PIII分布为干旱历时边缘分布，Weilbull分布作为干旱程度边缘分布。由GH Copula函数构造联合分布推求干旱历时和干旱程度的联合重现期和同现重现期的设计值。考虑干旱历时和干旱程度的不同组合，可以求得各干旱历时或干旱程度下的条件概率。计算结果表明，梅江流域遭遇干旱的风险较汀江以及韩江流域下游更大。

Abstract

Streamflow drought index (SDI) with 6-month was calculated using monthly runoffs as hydrologic drought analysis indicator at three hydrologic stations of Shuikou

Sikou and Chaoan during 1956-2011. And extraction of two variable element which is duration and degree of drought through run theory as well as analysis the drought characteristics of Hanjiang based on two variable joint probability distribution's method. The distribution of P-III was selected as the drought duration marginal distribution and the distribution of Weibull was selected as the drought degree marginal distribution by comparing each distribution fitting index. In order to obtain the design value of \ joint return period and co-occurrence with duration and degree of drought using joint distribution structured by GH Copula. For the sake of obtain conditional probability of drought duration or drought degree under the each one

to consider combination of different duration and degree of drought. Seen from the results

the greater risk of facing drought by Meijiang is more than the Hanjiang downstream.

关键词

水文干旱联合分布Copula函数韩江

Keywords

hydrologic droughtjoint distributionCopula functionthe Hanjiang river

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Related Author

LIU Zhanming

CHEN Zishen

HUANG Qiang

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Related Institution

Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University

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