Comparative Analysis on Probability Distribution Models of Short-time Strong Rainfall in the Cities of Pearl River Delta

CHEN Zishen; HUANG Qiang; LI Honghao; XIANG Jingjing

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Comparative Analysis on Probability Distribution Models of Short-time Strong Rainfall in the Cities of Pearl River Delta

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- Comparative Analysis on Probability Distribution Models of Short-time Strong Rainfall in the Cities of Pearl River Delta
- Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni Vol. 54, Issue 2, Pages: 127-132(2015)
- 作者机构：
  
  中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东,广州,510275
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2015，
  
  Published Online：25 March 2015，
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CHEN Zishen, HUANG Qiang, LI Honghao, et al. Comparative Analysis on Probability Distribution Models of Short-time Strong Rainfall in the Cities of Pearl River Delta. [J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni 54(2):127-132(2015)
DOI：

CHEN Zishen, HUANG Qiang, LI Honghao, et al. Comparative Analysis on Probability Distribution Models of Short-time Strong Rainfall in the Cities of Pearl River Delta. [J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni 54(2):127-132(2015) DOI：

摘要

采用GPD、GEV 和PearsonⅢ型3种概率分布模型，对比分析珠江三角洲18个城市短时强降水的概率分布，主要结论如下：① 经AD、PPCC、RMSE和Q统计值拟合优度检验结果显示GPD模型普遍优于GEV和P-III型，反映超限量阈值法更适用于观测年限较短站点的极端水文气象事件的设计分位值推算；② 花都、广州、新会、恩平、顺德、中山、珠海、深圳8个城市GPD模型的形态参数表明短时强降水出现概率高，且推算的设计降水大于GEV和PIII相应设计值；③ 参考相关“短时临近降雨强度等级划分”标准，珠江三角洲两年一遇短时强降水雨强即可达特大暴雨级别，是导致城市内涝的主要影响因子。

Abstract

The probability distribution applicability of short-time strong rainfall for 18 cities in the Pearl River Delta were contrastively analyzed by Using GPD

GEV and Pearson-Ⅲ type probability distribution model

respectively. The main conclusions were reached in the following: ① The results of goodness of fit test using Anderson-Darling test

probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC)

Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Q statistic reflected that the GPD method is more suitable for the design quantile calculation of the extreme hydrological and meteorological events for the shorter fixed number of year of the observation sites; ② The shape parameters of the GDP models for the cities of Huadu

Guangzhou

Xinhui

Enping

Shunde

Zhongshan

Zhuhai and Shenzhen show that the occurrence probabilities of short-time strong rainfall are high

and the calculated the design precipitation intensity larger than that with GEV and P-III type models; ③ Referring to “near shortterm rainfall intensity hierarchies”standard

in the Pearl River Delta

the rainfall intensity in a period of 2 years can reach the torrential rain level

which is the main influence factor for urban waterlogging events.

关键词

概率分布模型拟合优度检验短时强降水珠江三角洲城市

Keywords

probability distribution modelsgoodness of fit testshort-time strong rainfallthe Pearl River Delta cities

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CHEN Zhishen

LIU Zengmei

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Department of Water Resource and Environment，Sun Yatsen University

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