Drought disaster evaluation model and characteristics of late rice in Guangdong
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Drought disaster evaluation model and characteristics of late rice in Guangdong
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseniVol. 55, Issue 3, Pages: 15-21(2016)
作者机构:
1. 广东省气候中心,广东,广州,510080
2.
3. 广东省生态气象中心,广东,广州,510640
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基金信息:
DOI:
CLC:
Published:2016,
Published Online:25 May 2016,
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CHEN Huihua, WANG Chunlin, DUAN Hailai, et al. Drought disaster evaluation model and characteristics of late rice in Guangdong. [J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni 55(3):15-21(2016)
DOI:
CHEN Huihua, WANG Chunlin, DUAN Hailai, et al. Drought disaster evaluation model and characteristics of late rice in Guangdong. [J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni 55(3):15-21(2016)DOI:
Drought disaster evaluation model and characteristics of late rice in Guangdong
drought index of each growth period was calculated by daily meteorological drought indicator (DI)
and drought disaster evaluation model was established and temporal-spatial characteristics of the drought disaster was analyzed in this paper. Main results are: ① Average drought frequency of late rice in Guangdong during recent 30 years (1981-2010) was 6.9%; mean yield reduction rate was 0.7%. Drought disaster mainly occurred at milk to mature stage of late rice
and light drought day's accounted for the main. ② Spatial distribution of late rice drought frequency and yield reduction rate was high in the north and low in the east of Guangdong. High incidence region of drought located in northwest of Guangdong
where the drought frequency was 15%~25%
and yield reduction rate was 1%. ③ Drought disaster of late rice in Guangdong tended to decrease without statistical significance during recent 30 years
which tended to increase in the southeast while decrease at the other regions. ④ Drought frequency and reduction rate of late rice tended to decrease under climate change. Therefore
the key period of the late rice drought disaster in Guangdong is heading to milk stage
and the attentions should be paid more on the northwest of Guangdong.
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