Forecasting Evaluations of Water Resources under Climate Scenarios in the East River Basin

DENG Xiaoyu; ZHANG Qiang; LI Jianfeng; SUN Peng; CHEN Xiaohong

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Forecasting Evaluations of Water Resources under Climate Scenarios in the East River Basin

更新时间：2023-12-11

- Forecasting Evaluations of Water Resources under Climate Scenarios in the East River Basin
- Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni Vol. 54, Issue 2, Pages: 141-149(2015)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 中山大学地理科学与规划学院∥华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广东,广州,510275
  2.  2 宿州学院地球科学与工程学院,安徽,宿州,234000
  3.  3 香港中文大学地理与资源管理系，香港沙田
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2015，
  
  Published Online：25 March 2015，
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DENG Xiaoyu, ZHANG Qiang, LI Jianfeng, et al. Forecasting Evaluations of Water Resources under Climate Scenarios in the East River Basin. [J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni 54(2):141-149(2015)
DOI：

DENG Xiaoyu, ZHANG Qiang, LI Jianfeng, et al. Forecasting Evaluations of Water Resources under Climate Scenarios in the East River Basin. [J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni 54(2):141-149(2015) DOI：

摘要

采用半分布式水文模型HSPF，结合1978-1998年东江流域实测气象数据和5个气候模式在3种RCP气候情景（RCP8.5，RCP4.5，RCP2.6）下基准期（1960-2000年）和未来时期（2020-2070年）降水、蒸发情景模拟结果，在对东江流域径流模拟检验基础上，对2020-2070年东江流域水资源量做了深入分析。结果表明，HSPF模型能很好模拟东江流域年、月径流以及洪水期径流变化，博罗站的NASH系数均超过0.81，PBIAS低于10%，RSR低于0.45；所选取气候模式能很好的反映研究流域气象数据在年内分布情况。对未来气候和东江流域水资源量模拟结果表明：① 2020-2070年不同气候变化情景下东江流域降水及蒸发量在RCP26和RCP4.5情景下均呈上升趋势，而在RCP8.5情景下，东江流域蒸发量则呈现下降趋势；② 未来东江流域多年月均径流量呈增加趋势；③ 未来东江流域不同频率下的洪水和枯水流量均呈不同程度的增长。相对于基准期，未来时期的洪水天数呈增长趋势，洪水灾害有加剧态势。

Abstract

The East River basin is the principle source of water supply for megacities in/in the vicinity of the Pearl River Delta. In this study

water resources during 2020-2070 are evaluated under different climate scenarios based on outputs of 5 GCMs. The climate scenarios are RCP8.5

RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. Besides

downscaling procedure was done based on observed data covering the period of 1960-2000. The period of 1960-2000 was taken as the base period. HSPF model was used in hydrological modeling. The results indicate that: ① The HSPF model performs well in the hydrological simulation practice with NASH coefficient of over 0.81，PBIAS and RSR less than 10% and 0.45. The scenarios can well mirror the annual distribution of meteorological variables. ② The precipitation and evaporation during 2020-2070 under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios increase and evaporation decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. ③ The period of 2020-2070 will witness increasing monthly streamflow and also high/low flow regimes. Besides

when compared to the base period

the period of 2020-2070 will witness increasing flooding days . Flood risk will be significantly enhancing.

关键词

气候模式HSPF模型东江流域水文模拟径流预测

Keywords

climate modelHSPF modelthe East River basinhydrological modelingstreamflow forecasting

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