GU Xihui, ZHANG Qiang, KONG Dongdong, et al. Low frequency climate variability induced annual mean and annual maxim streamflow variations and related sensitivity across the Pearl River basin. [J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni 56(1):138-144(2017)
DOI:
GU Xihui, ZHANG Qiang, KONG Dongdong, et al. Low frequency climate variability induced annual mean and annual maxim streamflow variations and related sensitivity across the Pearl River basin. [J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis SunYatseni 56(1):138-144(2017)DOI:
Low frequency climate variability induced annual mean and annual maxim streamflow variations and related sensitivity across the Pearl River basin
Variability of the low-frequency climate change is the principle driver for the annual and interannual streamflow changes. The influences of lowfrequency climate indices such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
on annual mean discharge (Q
ann
) and annual peak discharge (Q
max
) of the Pearl River basin have been quantitatively analyzed. The results show that: ① Q
ann
and Q
max
were significantly affected by different climate indices in different regions with distinctly different spatial patterns in terms of correlation degrees and sensitivity and also the trends of impact strength. ENSO and IOD at the same year exerted a persistent significant impact on the Q
ann
at the regions covering most of the West River basin
and the strength of the correlation increased significantly
which can be taken as the predictor for Q
ann
. For the same reason
PDO at the same year can be taken as the predictor for Q
ann
in the eastern parts of the Pearl River basin and the North River basin
and NAO
IOD a year earlier and NAO at the same year can be taken as the predictor for Q
max
in the middle Pearl River basin; ② As for the entire Pearl River basin
negativephase ENSO
NAO and PDO tend to cause Q
ann
at lower levels with an increasing risk of droughts. However
positivephase ENSO
IOD and negative phase NAO and PDO tend to cause Q
max
at higher levels with an increasing risk of extreme floods; ③ Q
max
was more sensitive to variability of atmospheric circulation than Q
ann
. Q
ann
varied between 03% and 24%
while Q
max
varied between 0.5% and 31% per unit index change. The NAO and IOD both at the same year and a year earlier show a higher sensitivity in most area of the Pearl River basin
but the sensitivity difference between Q
ann
and Q
max
was significant
the latter had an area ratio of 56%
59%
71% and 36% sensitivity higher than the former.
关键词
低频气候变化年平均流量年洪峰流量灵敏度
Keywords
low-frequency climate indicesannual mean dischargeannual peak dischargesensitivity